Friday, July 31, 2009
How to Make Money with YouTube
Thursday, July 30, 2009
New Measurements Show Online Growth Changing
Shatner, Palin, Poetry and Twitter
Looks like a great career move for Priceline Bill.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Posterous
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Do you think there is room for a tweener device? Between the full computer - laptop or desktop and phone or game device?
Friday, July 24, 2009
Airlines as a Business
- Airlines
- Buses
- Ferries
- Trains
Thursday, July 16, 2009
The March of Technology
Sunday, July 12, 2009
What Will People Pay for?
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Dan Bricklin and New Modes of Interaction
Dan Bricklin published a wonderfully thoughtful paper titled New Modes of Interaction. To best explain the post I will let his opening paragraph carry the load…
“Every decade or so there has been a change in interaction styles between computers and their users. This change impacts both what the user sees and what the programmer needs to do when architecting an application. This change is brought about by innovations in both hardware and software. At first, mainly new applications are created using this new style, but as time goes on and the style becomes dominant, even older applications need to be re-implemented in the new style.”
Dan is addressing most of the things that have been rolling around in my head for the past couple of years as I have begun to understand just how much of a watershed we are at in computing.
Dan focuses on the technologies in Microsoft’s Natal and Google Wave. But to me his list of “other technologies” is the jewel in this paper.
Here is his list…
- Pervasive inclusion of webcams
- Online video
- Latency of responses using the Internet
- Ubiquity of access to shared data during conversations
- Screen size and number through price drops
- Acceptance of gesture-based systems
- Direct manipulation systems
- Movement away from using a mouse
- Real-time mixed streams
- Tagging
- Inexpensive disk and portable (flash) memory
- Consumer-level installation of IT infrastructure
- Notification in stream
- Seamlessly move to mobile
- Battery life
- Mashups
- Plug-ins and external APIs
- The decline of paper (and not just the newspaper) - Rather than having paper as the ultimate destination, the screen is now the ultimate destination
This is a heck of a list.
To be clear on my thinking, I do not believe the goldmine is yet in the PAUI interface of the Natal technology. I believe it will be, just not yet.
- A user is just a user is just a user. We are trying to build a tool based on people instead of documents and hierarchical structures.
- Who do you want to share / work / interact with?
- What do you want to share / work on / interact using?
Here is a 3 minute and 46 second video of where this effort is as of July 10, 2009. It is exciting to us. It has a ways to go. But what a thrill to be going.
You will notice another of our services in this video - Cap Dat ACORD. At the moment SehHey is an extension of this service. We will be breaking it out and creating API's to allow it to interact with any other system.
Thanks Dan for making me feel am not to far off.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Mark Lazen Thinks Facebook is Dying
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
More on Freemium
- Advertising
- Freemium - my favorite
- Syndication
- $125 million from brand ads
- $150 million from Facebook's ad deal with Microsoft
- $75 million from virtual goods
- $200 million from self-service ads.
These numbers are similar enough to others that I have heard that I feel comfortable republishing them here. Facebook has 200mm+ monthly active users worldwide. Let's say they are doing $50mm per month in revenue. That's a revenue per monthly active user of $0.25. Low for sure, but enough to operate at breakeven."
This is an interesting look at revenue per user based on advertising.
To compare this to Freemium businesses of which I have a personal knowledge, they seem to have a monthly revenue per user of $1.00 to $5.00. This makes freemium much easier to run profitably at fewer than 200,000,000 users. It may be a better fit for the business that has a more niche focus and a limit of 100,000 to 1,000,000 total users.
Of course I feel the need to add a word of caution about start up times and cost. The source of high margins in online ventures is based on the relatively true statement that the marginal cost of each additional user is almost zero. The flip side of that is the cost of your first user is your total development and operating cost. It can take a significant period of time to attract an adequate number of even free users.
I have read the typical runway to this break even point should be planned as four years. My experience is your doing great if you get there in three years. It is possible with very strict attention to cost controls.
As a final comparison, in the pure software model where nothing is free - in a niche like property and casualty insurance, Applied Systems, an Insurnace Agency specific back office system - the average monthly revenue per user may be $100 to $250. This is a slower sales model, but each sale covers it's unique cost from day 1 - minus of course development and probably direct selling cost.
- Amazon with books
- An insurance agent with insurance policies
- A lawyer with legal advice